"Silver IV" consumption is not short of weakness

In April 2014, polyester staple fiber showed a weak downward trend. Although Polyester bottomed out in late March, it failed to extend the gains in April and the cumulative price continued to fall. Although the polyester industry is in the traditional season of “Silver IV”, but the polyester and short-term market is weak and weak, the turnover is insufficient, and the downstream purchases are scheduled to enter the market. Its price hit the lowest value of 8,730 yuan/ton on April 16, and reached the highest value of 8,830 yuan/ton on the 21st. During the month (18th -21st), there was a slight upward trend in the market and the rest of the period was in a state of weakness. In the first half of April, prices stabilized first and then fell. In the first week of the month, the polyester and short-term market failed to extend the warming up of the polyester industry chain at the end of March. However, due to weaker raw material support and high polyester and short inventory, the demand for cleanliness in the Ching Ming holiday was still stagnant, and then the weakness declined to 16 day. On April 18-21, with the raw material stocks in the upstream sector rising, combined with the spurt of rising prices and the strong trend of polyester filament prices, downstream users concentrated on replenishing stocks, and polyester shorted up by RMB 100/ton. In the second half of the year, the weakness of polyester and polyester products was mainly due to the lack of pull-down power of upstream raw materials, the weak sales of downstream pure polyester and its blended gauze, and the consumption of inventory by user companies. The willingness to purchase goods was low, and the market had a strong wait-and-see atmosphere and short polyesters. Insufficient fiber support results in a weak center of gravity of polyester staple fiber. If there is no abnormal fluctuation of raw materials in the short term, the polyester staple fiber market will maintain the trend of stable consolidation and consolidation. In April, the operating rate of polyester staple fiber production enterprises was maintained at 75-80%, and the main production and sales volume was 70-80%. The price was maintained below the integer number of 9,000. Monthly statistics: The price of polyester staple fiber decreased by 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.79%, and it was at the end of the month at 8750 yuan/ton.

In April, New York crude oil rallied, then the cumulative price increase continued to fall, a decrease of 1.8%, the end of the month price of 99.74 US dollars / barrel. This is the second consecutive monthly decline in oil prices, with three monthly declines in the past four months.

In April, Polyester's short upstream raw materials differed from the March rise, except for polyester chips. Among them, PX and PTA were mainly due to the restart of the restricted production facility in March which led to the recovery of operating rate and the decline in capacity supply. PTA operating rate, production and inventory recovery, making PTA losses increased. The MEG fell weakly, and polyester chips oscillated slightly.

Asian PX soared sharply down 52 US dollars to 1191 US dollars / ton, a decrease of 4.18%. In mid-to late March, the PTA period spot market experienced a wave of mid-level rebound, driven by the substantial reduction in PTA plant load. However, since April, with the restart of parking facilities in the early stage, the load of PTA industry started to quickly return to the level of about 70%, causing the PTA market to return to a weak position. The PTA's internal market rebounded sharply and fell by a total of 460 yuan. At the end of the month, it operated at 6,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.01%. In May and June, Asian regions will usher in multiple sets of PX units, and the rebound in PX prices in Asia will be difficult; domestic new PTA production capacity will also usher in relatively intensive production; with the end of the traditional PTA consumer season, PTA demand will turn for the better Difficult to continue.

In the first quarter, the overall performance of the MEG market was weak, and the spot price went down all the way, but near the end of the quarter, the MEG market appeared to have a tailwind. However, the price of MEG stopped falling in April and fell by 280 yuan/ton to 6,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.04%. The polyester chips bottomed out in March, and the shocks were adjusted in April, and the cumulative increase continued to rise. At the end of the month, it was at 8,750 yuan/ton.

Although April is a traditional textile peak season in a certain sense, the yarn market is still cautious. In the raw material market, polyester yarn was sluggish. Exports were weaker than in previous years and domestic demand was poor. The amount of production was insufficient and the price was weak. The increase in stocks of polyester and yarn mills has generally led to a lack of confidence in the market outlook and shipment psychology is dominant. Although pure polyester yarn is better than cotton yarn and human cotton yarn, profit margins still exist. However, under the weakness of raw material polyester staple fiber and insufficient downstream actual consumption, it is still difficult for the market price to improve significantly. This month, the mainstream price of pure polyester yarn continued to fall in the 32s, with a slight decrease of 50 yuan/ton to the end of the month of 13,350 yuan/ton. Due to the weak price of polyester staple fiber, coupled with the continuous decline in the price of cotton, the price of polyester/cotton yarn expanded. Continuation of the trend, including T65/C3532s accumulated a substantial drop of 700 yuan / ton to 18,800 yuan / ton. (See Table 2)

In April, the general series of polyester-cotton products was generally unmarketable. In spring and summer, the number of varieties of products listed on the market for staple fiber yarns increased, and the trading volume increased. The woven and dyed fabrics woven from T/C polyester yarns and cotton yarns, etc., are well-smoothed in local marketing, and are mainly produced in spring and summer clothing. Polyester, cotton, polyester-cotton poplin fabrics are also relatively dynamic.

In April, the domestic end of the temporary purchasing and storage policy, and the introduction of 19,800 yuan target price of cotton subsidies policy, resulting in the domestic cotton spot prices continued to fall sharply, the difference between the domestic and foreign cotton price narrowed to 3,000 yuan per ton. The drop in cotton spot prices has been established. If the future declines continue to expand, it is expected to increase cotton consumption in the domestic market, which will in turn cause some impact on the prices of substitute fibers such as polyester staple fiber.