Huitong.com April 12th - On Tuesday (April 11) overnight, according to the Wall Street Journal, Saudi Arabia has informed OPEC officials that it hopes to extend the current production reduction agreement for six months at the May meeting, after which it will be announced. In the week, API crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased by 1.3 million barrels; affected by this dual factor, the US WTI May crude oil futures electronic disk price hit a new high of more than 5 weeks; Wednesday (April 12) will release a series of important issues such as the Bank of Canada April interest rate. Data, OPEC will also publish the latest crude oil market report, please pay attention to the latest news of Huitong.com.
Important data and financial events on the trading day of April 12 (Wednesday):
109:30 China March CPI annual rate;
216:30 UK unemployment rate in March, UK unemployment benefit applicants in March, UK ILO unemployment rate in February three months;
316:30 Bank of England Governor Carney speaks at the London International Conference on Financial Technology;
420:30 US March import price index monthly rate;
522:00 The Bank of Canada announced the interest rate decision and monetary policy report, the Federal Reserve's 2017 vote committee Kaplan issued a speech;
622:30 EIA crude oil inventories for the week of the US to April 7;
723:15 Bank of Canada Governor Poloz and Senior Vice President Wilkins attended the press conference;
8 pending OPEC release monthly crude oil market report
[Overnight market news review]
[Federal Williams: In 2017, interest rate hikes should be 3 to 4 times, and the end of the year will be reduced.]
San Francisco Fed President Williams said on Tuesday (April 11) that the Fed should raise interest rates three to four times in 2017, and began to reduce the Fed's huge balance sheet at the end of this year. Williams’s speech coincides with the wording of Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen on Monday. Yellen said that the US job market is currently in a normal state, with an unemployment rate of 4.5%, which is slightly lower than some people think is the full employment level.
[March OPEC cuts production beyond the scope of commitment, oil price rises and then gains favorable support]
According to data used by the export group to monitor supply, OPEC oil producers' crude oil production in March exceeded previous commitments, and the implementation rate of the first production reduction agreement in eight years exceeded expectations. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed to cut production by about 1.2 million barrels per day in six months from January 1 to support oil prices and ease oversupply. Russia and 10 other non-OPEC countries agreed to cut production by 600,000 barrels per day.
[Institution: The Fed’s rate hike is fragile and there may be a recession in the future]
In a quarterly report, Van R. Hoisington and LacyHunt of Hoisington Investment ManaGEment, which manages $3.7 billion in assets, said that when the Fed tries to raise interest rates, the US economy is "extremely" vulnerable to potential shocks, and economic conditions may magnify policy behavior. influences.
[EIA Monthly: EIA cuts its global oil demand growth forecast this year, and raises its growth forecast next year]
Downgraded the global crude oil demand growth forecast of 20,000 barrels per day in 2017 to 1.94 million barrels per day; the global crude oil demand growth in 2018 is expected to increase by 40,000 barrels per day to 1.63 million barrels per day;
[List of major global markets]
stock market
Domestically, on April 11th, the two cities opened up slightly in early trading, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell back to green in the 3280 area. The GEM index returned to the 60th line and fell back. In the afternoon, the two cities continued to bottom out and became strong. Turn red. At the close of the day, both cities have closed long-term positive Yangxian. The Shanghai Composite Index has been released from the previous trading day, and the GEM has shrunk from the previous trading day.
As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was 3289.97, up 0.60%, and the Shenzhen Component Index was at 10655.79 points, up 0.50%. The GEM pointed to 1917.63, up 0.27%.
For European stocks, the FTSE Pan-European 300 Index closed up 0.01% at 1501.38 points; the European STOXX600 index closed down 0.02% at 381.18 points; the German DAX30 index closed down 0.50% at 12139.35 points; the French CA C40 index closed lower 0.11%, reported 5,201.86 points; Britain's FTSE 100 index closed up 0.23%, reported 7365.50 points.
In the US stock market, the three major US stock indexes closed lower, geopolitical risks warmed up against investor risk appetite: the S&P 500 index fell 3.38 points, down 0.14% to 2351.78 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 6.72 points, or 0.03%. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed down 14.15 points, down 0.24% to 5866.77 points; the Russell 2000 Index closed up 0.72% to 1376.95 points; the panic index VIX closed up 7.26% to 15.07.
futures
In terms of crude oil, the US WTI May crude oil futures electronic disk price closed up 0.28 US dollars on Tuesday (April 11), or 0.53%, to 53.40 US dollars / barrel; oil prices rose from falling, due to reports that Saudi Arabia told the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) officials, the country supports the extension of the production reduction agreement for six months. US WTI oil prices hit a new high of more than five weeks.
Oil prices have recently traded within the range, supported by a production cut agreement between OPEC and other oil-producing countries, but the increase in US shale oil production has limited oil prices. Oil prices fell in the early trading hours of the US trading session and then rose after the Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia said it would extend the cut-off agreement to be implemented in January by six months at the OPEC meeting in May. OPEC member states have previously stated that as long as non-OPEC oil producers also participate, they tend to extend the production reduction agreement. Brent crude oil has risen for seven consecutive trading days, and US crude oil has risen for six consecutive trading days. Oil prices fell once in early trading on Tuesday, as US crude oil inventories are expected to increase again.
According to US API data, crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell by 1.3 million barrels, which is expected to increase by 316,000 barrels, and the previous value will be reduced by 1.8 million barrels. In the US as of April 7th, API gasoline inventories decreased by 3.7 million barrels, a decrease of more than the expected decrease of 896,000 barrels, and the previous value decreased by 2.6 million barrels. The US refined oil stocks decreased by 1.6 million barrels in the week ended April 7 The decline was less than the expected reduction of 1.761 million barrels, and the previous value was reduced by 2 million barrels.
In terms of gold, US June gold futures closed up 1.6% at $1,724.20. The price of gold jumped nearly 2% on Tuesday (April 11) to a five-month high. As the situation in North Korea and the Middle East and the upcoming French elections continue to heighten political and security concerns, investors are seeking safe havens.
The uncertainty of the results of the French elections and the possible military strikes by the United States against countries such as Syria have boosted the demand for safe-haven assets by uneasy investors. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Monday (April 10) that the Fed’s intention to raise interest rates step by step is to keep the economy fully underemployed and keep inflation at nearly 2%. From a technical point of view, the price of gold broke through the key technical resistance of the 200-day moving average, driving more buying.
In terms of commodities, rebar and hot rolled coils closed down by 2.8% and 3.2% respectively; rubber and asphalt fell by 4.7% and 4.2% respectively; coke, coking coal and thermal coal fell by 3.6%, 2.1% and 0.5% respectively. Iron ore fell 2.1%; palm oil, soybean oil, vegetable oil fell 0.9%, 1%, 1.6%; glass closed down 2.1%.
Foreign exchange
The dollar fell across the board on Tuesday, and the yen was nearing a five-month low. Due to geopolitical risks, US Treasury yields fell, driving traders to withdraw from the dollar. The yen rose across the board. Due to concerns about Syria and North Korea, a French left-wing candidate who was once seen as a bureaucrat in the French presidential election re-emerged, further stimulating the buying demand for safe-haven currencies.
The dollar fell more than 1% against the yen, ending at 109.67, the lowest level since November 17. The euro fell 1% against the yen, as investors weighed the possibility of the French far-right presidential candidate Le Pen and the ultra-left-wing candidate Mei Langxiong might compete for the president. Recently, the poll showed that the latter’s support rate soared.
Le Pen and Melangon promised to hold a referendum on the status of France's EU member states, sparking fears that France will likely follow the footsteps of the UK and exit the euro zone. The euro fell against the yen for the 11th consecutive day, the longest decline in the history of the euro. The euro fell to 116.31 yen, the lowest since November 17. The US dollar index fell 0.3% to 100.71.
[International Finance News]
[Goldman Sachs: Oil market rebalancing is in progress, still expect oil to rise to 57 US dollars in the second half of the year]
Goldman Sachs said that although the MSCI Global Index has fallen in the past week, the recent correlation between risk assets and crude oil is rising. According to CFTC data, the recent net long position of US crude oil and copper futures has dropped significantly, indicating that investors are skeptical about the increase in sentiment. But contrary to the signal, the Goldman Sachs Commodity team still believes that the rebalancing of the crude oil market is underway in the context of strong demand and OPEC production cuts in the first half of this year. Goldman Sachs continues to expect Brent crude to rise to $57/barrel in the second half of the year and return to spot premium in the second half of the year.
[Leading big brother is beyond doubt! Saudi oil output fell to the lowest in January in March]
According to a person familiar with Saudi output data on Tuesday (April 11), Saudi oil output in March has fallen to its lowest level since January this year and is below its promised level. It is reported that Saudi Arabia has been taking the lead in reducing production since the beginning of the year, and the reduction in production is greater than the agreement level.
[Dow Fu: The pound is definitely likely to fall from the current level]
Richard Lacaille, chief investment officer of State Street Global Investment Management (StateStreetGloBA lAdvisors), said that the Brexit negotiations may still have follow-up storms, which will lead people to re-adjust expectations; despite rising inflation, UK interest rates may remain low for a long time; The British government bond is not a good investment, and the pound is underestimated from a fundamental point of view.
[IMF: The global economic outlook is more optimistic now, but trade may be delayed! 】
On Monday (April 10), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) President Lagarde said that the global economic outlook for this year and next year is expected to be more optimistic than 2016, but there are still concerns about the situation in the near future; As trade protectionism heats up after the financial crisis, the role of trade as an engine of global economic growth is threatened; trade liberalization can increase productivity and living standards, and the IMF supports open trade and calls on the government to help more unemployed workers.
[Everything is also good for Easter night? UK CPI annual rate stabilized 2.3% in March]
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS) on Tuesday (April 11), the UK CPI annual rate rose by 2.3% in March, exceeding the Bank of England's 2.0% target level, due to the late arrival of Easter this year, and oil prices. It fell, but the British family seems to be recovering soon, and the UK CPI growth rate may accelerate in April.
[Reporter: Germany's main think tanks increase Germany's GDP growth forecast this year and next]
According to sources familiar with the latest estimates, Germany's major economic think tanks have raised Germany's GDP growth forecast for 2017 from 1.4% to 1.5%, and the 2018 estimate from 1.6% to 1.8%. . The latest forecast is scheduled for release on Wednesday.
[Reporter: Saudi Aramco has been negotiating with BP, Chevron and other companies]
Saudi Arabia and several international energy companies discussed natural gas investment opportunities in the country and abroad, which is one of the country's initiatives to diversify investment before the listing of the Saudi Arabian National Oil Company (Saudi Aramco); four industry sources Telling Reuters, Saudi officials discussed investment opportunities with companies including BP and Chevron to help develop the country's natural gas reserves. Saudi Arabia's natural gas reserves rank sixth in the world, and its domestic energy demand is growing rapidly.
[Goldman Sachs: Is the oil supply surplus or shortage? It’s hard to say that there is a shale oil pumping station.
Oil giants such as investment banks, France's Total and Italy's Eni Group have alleged that large-scale spending cuts caused by falling oil prices since 2014 will make oil supply tight in the next two years; but Goldman Sachs believes that US oil production is about to recover after rising oil prices Together with the emergence of traditional new projects, the oil market will have a serious surplus before 2019.
[Domestic financial news]
[PBOC: A total of 59 overseas central bank institutions entered the inter-bank bond market as of the end of March]
The People's Bank of China website announced the list of foreign institutional investors in the inter-bank bond market as of the end of March. There are 59 overseas central bank institutions and 244 other foreign institutional investors. The central bank institutions include overseas central banks or monetary authorities, international financial organizations, and sovereignty. Wealth funds, other official reserve management agencies, etc.
[BlackRock: optimistic about the performance of Hong Kong stocks, it is expected that the investment trend of financial institutions in the Mainland will continue]
Zhu Yue, head of China's equity at BlackRock, an international investment management company, said that with the improvement of the economic environment in the Mainland, coupled with the “Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect†and “Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connectâ€, there have been about 50 billion US dollars since the beginning of last year. From the mainland to the Hong Kong stock market. I am optimistic about the performance of Hong Kong stocks this year; as mainland A-shares have improved in the first half of the previous year, the valuation has risen to a high level, attracting funds through stock exchanges, and purchasing H-shares with relatively cheap valuations in Hong Kong; among them, domestic banks and domestic housing H-shares The proportion of dividends is relatively high, which is more attractive to mainland financial institutions.
[Reuters: China's independent refineries face new challenges]
Reuters: For China's independent refineries, it is isolated from the lucrative refined oil export market, and profit margins are being squeezed by the government's new taxation policy. They are exploring new areas from clean energy to wood processing. Expand the scope of trade to overcome these challenges.
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