Securities Times Network () August 15th
Beijing Urban Construction 600266, Diagnostic Unit : Non-business impacts performance growth
Research institution: GF Securities 000776, diagnostic stock
Core point of view:
Non-main business profit impact performance
In the first half of 2017, the company achieved a total operating income of 3.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.67%, a net profit of 264 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 39.53%, and earnings per share of 0.17 yuan. There are two reasons for the decline in revenue growth. First, the gross profit margin of real estate settlement decreased by 2.8 percentage points compared with the same period of last year. Second, the other operating income of the company decreased by 48% compared with the same period of last year. The investment brokers paid dividends of 68.6 million in the first half of the year. Yuan, and the dividend for the first half of the year was $206 million.
The stable average price of sales increased, and the rate of return dropped sharply in the second quarter.
In terms of sales, the company completed the contracted sales amount of 10.9 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 53.3% compared with the same period of last year. The increase in scale was mainly due to the increase in the average selling price. In the second half of the year, the scale of the company's push will remain stable, and the proportion of projects in Beijing will increase. It is expected to reach 20 billion in the whole year. In terms of payment, the single-quarter return rate in the second quarter was only 37%, which was greatly affected by the mortgage loan quota.
Further increase the access to the shed reform project, and the leverage level will increase slightly.
In terms of land acquisition, the company's comprehensive project expansion model has gradually taken shape, and a total of 6 land acquisitions have been obtained through various means. The second-level development project has a scale of 1.12 million square meters. By the middle of the 17th year, it has obtained shed reform and first-level project investment. A total of 76.3 billion yuan. In the first half of the year, the company's net debt ratio increased by 40 percentage points. Considering the low rate of return in the second quarter, the actual leverage level has not increased significantly.
The results for the 17 and 18 years are expected to be 1.08 and 1.60 yuan respectively, maintaining a “Buy†rating.
In the first half of the year, the main business of the company's real estate remained basically stable. The increase in the area of ​​completion and the increase in sales scale provided a good guarantee for the settlement of the main business in the next few years. Pay attention to the progress of investment settlement of the company's Wangtan project. If it enters the settlement in 17 years, the growth of performance will be more flexible.
risk warning
The sales performance of the company was greatly affected by the Beijing policy, and the progress of the old project was uncertain.
Taiji shares 002368, diagnostic stock : Trusted cloud service certification helps companies improve barriers to competition
Research institute: Shen Wan Hongyuan 000166, medical stock
Investment points:
The Taiji Cloud Hosting Service is certified by the Trusted Cloud Hosting Service. According to the requirements of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, starting from 2018, companies engaged in cloud services need to obtain business licenses, and unlicensed business operations will be investigated. As of the first half of 2017, there were 1,272 IDC enterprises nationwide, and only 12 companies with cloud service qualifications. Family. At present, users in the government, finance, energy, transportation, manufacturing and other industries have purchased cloud computing services, and the licensing operation is conducive to the improvement of industry concentration!
Taiji Cloud is a Beijing government affairs cloud service provider, serving more important institutions and regions in the future. Taiji Cloud is facing all business systems of Beijing Municipal Commissions and institutions. As of July 2017, nearly 170 business systems of 58 commission offices have been deployed in Taiji Cloud, including the National People's Congress Voter Registration System and the Municipal Party Committee Organization. Ministry of Cadre Management System, Finance Bureau website, Beijing Traffic Police APP, Beijing Tong APP, etc.
The tendency of state-owned capital to become bigger and stronger in various fields is clear, and the direction of the "Nineteenth National Congress" will be more clear. From the current industrial structure, it is shown that the expansion of state-owned enterprises is an important area of ​​future capital gains. The Taiji share business has special characteristics in the electrical system. The system integration has the best customer stickiness and the grasp of the customer's IT structure. Taiji history On the development of China's earliest minicomputer, software subsidiary Huidian Technology layout G20, State Council, National People's Congress and other software services, Taiji strategic layout system integration, software, hardware.
With independent control as the focus, cloud computing as the implementation model, and smart city as the application scenario, the group relationship, industry status, and development direction are very clear, and the execution of state-owned enterprises will exceed expectations! The government information technology project considers the background of the same shareholders. The Taiji integrated product has the strongest ability and security implementation experience. Taking cloud computing as an example, most cities/ministries have been winning the bid for the Taiji since 2016. I am optimistic about the core position of Taiji in the background of the country's capital is bigger and stronger, the probability of income and profit scale is higher than expected!
Maintain “Buy†rating and earnings forecast, and the acquisition of Quantum Weiye is in the issuance stage. As the event starts in 2015, the profit statement is the pro forma profit including the annual performance of Quantum Weiye. Due to the number of outstanding outstanding shares to be issued, the EPS is not diluted. . 17/18/19 net profit of 413 million, 503 million, 579 million, valuation at 26X, 22X, 19X! Considering Taiji shares separately, the 2017 profit forecast is 373 million and PE is 29X. Whether it is comparing similar companies or sector valuations, the value of Taiji shares is significantly lower.
Today International 300532, diagnostic stocks : new orders in new areas, sudden increase in performance in the second half
Research institution: Southwest Securities 600369, diagnostic stock
Investment points
Event: On August 9, 2017, we conducted a survey of the company. The company is an intelligent logistics system integrator, providing customers with integrated warehousing and distribution automation logistics systems and services based on the advantages of planning integration and software development. The company has been infiltrating in the tobacco industry for many years and is currently actively expanding into many fields including new energy sources for lithium batteries. The semi-annual report of the company was released. In the first half of 2017, the company's operating income was 170 million yuan, down 3.0% year-on-year. The net profit of returning to the mother was 21.709 million yuan, down 31.2% year-on-year. The net profit of non-home return was 14.348 million yuan, down 50.4% year-on-year. The company's performance is expected to bottom out.
Business orders were completed on time and profit expectations increased significantly. The tobacco industry project period is generally 6-12 months, so the company can not immediately confirm the income in the new orders. At present, the company still has an unrecognized income order of 1.03 billion yuan. In the hand orders, there are 620 million yuan being implemented. These projects can basically be completed and confirmed revenue this year, mainly concentrated in the third quarter and the fourth quarter. If the project is completed on time, the company will bring 6.2 billion in operating income to the company in the second half of the year, an increase of 181.82%.
Extend the industrial chain and broaden new areas. The company's performance growth comes from three aspects: (1) The company hopes to extend the industry chain appropriately, including extending from production supporting logistics to production line transformation, and other aspects; (2) the company is working hard to expand more customer areas, While grasping key hot areas, we will explore some areas of sustainable development. (3) The company's team is constantly expanding, on the one hand to improve its own production capacity, on the one hand through the expansion of the marketing team, into the new customer field.
Explore new demands in the tobacco industry and continue to enter new areas such as lithium batteries. The company has a base in the tobacco industry for nearly 20 years. The company's tobacco industry orders are relatively stable and the gross profit margin is slightly higher than other industries, mainly because the tobacco industry has high technical requirements and the company has rich experience and can reduce costs. The company is exploring new needs for the tobacco industry, such as the upgrading of existing technologies, the transformation of existing equipment and production lines, such as the addition of monitoring equipment data. In the past two years, the company has continuously obtained orders in the lithium battery industry. The 3C industry will also be the key business area for the company's future expansion. The company acquired Xulong on June 28, 2017. After that, the two parties will be expected to share resources from downstream customers and upstream suppliers to enhance the company's competitiveness and ability in these two downstream industries.
Earnings forecasts and investment advice. Considering that the company's performance release in 2017 may exceed expectations, slightly higher earnings forecasts. It is estimated that the compound annual growth rate of the company's net profit for the year 2017-2019 is 49.5%, and the corresponding EPS is 0.66 yuan, 0.86 yuan, and 1.19 yuan respectively. In view of the company's higher growth rate in the next three years, combined with the computer industry PE (TTM) average of 56 times, the company gave 45 times PE in 2017, corresponding to the target price of 29.7 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk Warning: The risk of bad debts due to excessive collection period of accounts receivable, the risk of orders or delayed confirmation.
Haishu House 600398, diagnostic stock : intends to share UR, the first step in the layout of fashion consumer industry
Research institution: Soochow Securities 601555, diagnostic stock
event
The company announced on the 8th and 14th night that the wholly-owned subsidiary Haishu Investment intends to increase its capital with its own funds, and the initial subscription of the shares does not exceed 10%. Haishu Investment will prepay investment of 100 million yuan to Fast Fashion, and Li Shangguang will undertake unlimited joint liability guarantee obligations.
Investment points
The main brand of Fast Fashion is "UrbanRevivo" (UR). As a domestic fast and fast fashion brand system, it is highly efficient and the channel is rapidly laid. It is in a period of rapid development. The UR brand was founded in 2006 by Mr. Li Mingguang. According to the China Fashion Brand Network, UR, which has experienced 10 years of growth, has opened more than 160 stores in China and overseas, and its revenue in 2016 reached 2 billion yuan. Its products are related to women's wear, men's wear, children's wear and shoe bag accessories. The design is in keeping with the trend of fashion and cost-effective. As a leading brand of cheap and fast fashion, it has been very active in recent years:
Its overall operating system is similar to ZARA, specifically:
(1) Design side: a small number of small, pay attention to popular trend forecasting and retail data feedback. In order to minimize inventory and improve turnover, UR follows a number of small-scale principles, and develops 12,000 models each year. It actually puts over 9000 models. Its product development team of more than 300 people attaches great importance to browsing fashion websites, going abroad for exhibitions, showcasing styles, etc. The method predicts the popular surface accessories and design elements and applies them to the design. At the same time, it can quickly adjust the product fabric, cutting, color and pricing through the timely tracking feedback of the retail data of the terminal stores.
(2) Production end: shorten the product lead time, and the self-owned factory guarantees the ability to take emergency orders. UR products are mainly divided into three types: planned goods, emergency goods, and returned goods. The planned goods generally take 60 days from design to store display. The emergency and return goods can be completed in 10 days at the fastest, and the speed is ahead of traditional clothing brands. In order to ensure the flexibility of the supply chain response, the company has its own factories to undertake emergency orders.
(3) Terminal: 1000 square meters store with rich SKU display + several times a week to bring new experience to consumers; "direct management" mode unified management of terminal stores, daily retail data analysis for store purchase and headquarters design Guidelines.
UR stores are preferentially located in the core business districts of first- and second-tier cities. At the same time, they are actively radiating to the emerging peripheral business districts where young people gather. Most of the stores are more than 1,000 square meters. The design-rich SKU supply is often updated several times a week. For example, Guangzhou Zhengjia Plaza store is updated every Monday, Thursday and Friday. The constantly updated store display gives consumers a continuous fresh shopping experience.
At the same time, the company expands its channels through the "direct class" mode. At present, the franchise channels account for about 60%. The franchise channels are still sent by UR to the store manager and control the store image design, product operation, clerk training, and the store team analyzes each store daily. Commodity data, timely submission of return orders, extension design and transfer of goods, etc., for 1) timely adjustment of purchases, 2) timely adjustment of production arrangements in the supply chain, 3) designer timely adjustment of design style and other systematic work according to consumer preferences solid foundation.
With the close cooperation of design, production and retail terminals, UR is operating efficiently and channels and terminal sales are expanding in an orderly manner. According to the company's official website, the future UR brand will expand its stores at a rate of 60-100 stores per year. It is estimated that the number of domestic and foreign stores will exceed 400 in 2020, and the business scale will exceed 10 billion.
Earnings forecast and investment advice
As the first national brand of business casual men's wear, this time participating in the fashion (UR), the synergy between the two industries is worth looking forward to: (1) Haishu's strong cash flow ability can protect the UR in the rapid growth period; (2) Haishu and UR are similar in channel mode. Haishu also has a deep supply chain in the men's field. It is expected to promote UR development from the perspective of industrial resource sharing; (3) UR as a new leading brand in fast fashion, its excellent product planning And the efficient fashion operation mode has great reference for the operation of Haishu's various brands. National men's wear and fast fashion ups and downs collide, the future synergy is worth looking forward to.
As the fashion has not disclosed the specific financial situation, we still maintain the original profit forecast: Under the background of relatively stable gross profit margin and effective control fees, it is expected that the company's 17-year performance will still maintain a 10% growth, 17/18/19 The net profit of the mother is expected to reach 34.3/37.7/39.5 billion yuan, corresponding to the current market value of 41.4 billion yuan, PE is 12.1/11.1/10.5 times respectively, and the dividend yield is up to 5.3% based on the current price and 16-year dividend, which belongs to the high dividend red low valuation white horse. . Considering the strong cash reserves of Haishu Home (as of the 17Q1 account, the monetary funds + transactional financial assets + other current assets totaled 9.159 billion yuan, 16 years of operating net cash flow of 2.928 billion yuan), we believe that this stock is still fast. Fashion (UR) should be seen as the first step in the field of corporate fashion consumer goods. At this point, Haishu's home has multiple attributes such as stable operation + high dividend red low valuation + fashion consumer goods extension imagination space, and continues to be optimistic, maintaining a "buy" rating!
Risk Warning: Terminal demand is less than expected, brand promotion and synergy are less than expected.
Hao Laike 603898, the diagnosis of stock : customer unit price, channel expansion simultaneously upgrade, layout cabinets, wooden doors into a new era of development
Research institute: Everbright Securities 601788, diagnostic stock
â—†In the first half of 2017, revenue increased by 35.4% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 56% year-on-year:
The company released the 2017 semi-annual report. During the reporting period, the company actively explored the whole house customization market, and its business performance achieved steady growth. The company achieved revenue of 718 million, a year-on-year increase of 35.4%, of which the second quarter achieved revenue of 454 million yuan, up 35.5 year-on-year. %. As the company opened fewer stores in 2016, we expect channel flexibility to contribute 6%-10% to the revenue side, which corresponds to the same store revenue growth rate of 27%-31%. The net profit of the company in the first half of the year was 108 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56%. Operating profit was 123 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.2%, of which operating profit in the second quarter was 95.89 million yuan, an increase of 28.4%. The EPS for the first half of the year was 0.34 yuan.
From the perspective of channels, the company's distribution channel revenue in the first half of 17 years accounted for 93.87%, an increase of 37.1% to 661 million. The direct sales channel declined due to the renovation of Guangzhou stores in the first half of the year. According to the city level of the store, the number of city stores in the Class A (provincial, municipal, and sub-provincial cities) accounted for 14%, and the revenue accounted for 23%; the number of B-type (prefecture-level cities) stores The proportion is 38%, the proportion of revenue is 43%, and the number of city stores in category C (county-level city and below) is 48%, and the proportion of revenue is 34%. In terms of the number of stores, the company continued to strengthen the construction of dealer sales network, and continued to encrypt the distribution of sales outlets in first- and second-tier cities, and strengthened the sinking of sales outlets in third- and fifth-tier cities. As of the end of June 2017, the company had more than 1,400 dealer stores, and more than 150 stores opened in the first half of the year. The net increase for the whole year is expected to reach 250-300.
â—†In the first half of 2017, the comprehensive gross profit margin decreased by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year. During the period, the expense ratio increased slightly by 0.1 percentage point year-on-year:
In the first half of 2017, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin was 38.3%, down 1.1 percentage points from the same period of last year. The gross profit margin of the main business was 39.3%, up 0.1 percentage point from the same period of last year. The company's average purchase price of raw materials increased significantly year-on-year. The gross profit margin of the main business remained stable year-on-year. We believe that the main reason is that the company's informationization, intelligence capabilities and sheet utilization rate (up 1.2 cents) will be upgraded at the same time, reducing production costs. In terms of expense ratio, the company increased slightly by 0.1 percentage point year-on-year to 21.3% in the first half of the year. The sales expense ratio increased significantly by 0.1 percentage point to 15.0% due to the increase in advertising expense rate. The administrative expense ratio decreased by 0.1 percentage point year-on-year to 6.4%.
â—† The proportion of original boards and other plate-type custom products increased significantly, and the unit price of passengers increased significantly:
In the first half of the 17th year, the company continued to carry out marketing and promotion activities around the whole house. Customized cabinet-style cabinets (such as TV cabinets, bookcases, balcony cabinets, porch, tatami, etc.) in the product structure accounted for Upgrade. At the same time, the company continued to strengthen the practice of environmental protection concepts. The proportion of “original board†series products increased quarter by quarter (accounting for 29% in June). We expect the average proportion in the first half of the year to reach 27%. Unit price increased by 2-3%. At present, the unit price of the company's terminal customers is 21,000 yuan, an increase of more than 15%.
â—† The large home extends to the ground, layout cabinets and wooden doors, entering a new era of development:
According to the report of Phoenix Home Network, Hao Laike's 2017 Central Distributors Conference was held in Guangzhou on July 31, 2017. The company has determined the strategy of the future big home, the company will be customized as the main axis of the main line to extend, extend the cabinets and wooden doors, with home + home improvement as the wings. We expect cabinet products to be unveiled next year. The cabinets are front-end products in the decoration process. The company cut into the cabinet field, on the one hand, it is expected to obtain traffic in a higher position and improve the passenger capacity. On the other hand, the cabinets are customized. An indispensable part of the field, adding cabinet products can increase the customer's one-stop shopping experience while increasing the customer price.
Wooden doors are also an important part of the whole house customization and play an important role in the real estate developers' clients. The company announced that it has established a joint venture with Ningbo Kelefu Home Technology Co., Ltd. to establish a good company, Kekefufu Wooden Door Co., Ltd. (the company invested 60%), and officially announced its entry into the wooden door field. Founded in April 2004, Ningbo Kelefu Furniture Co., Ltd. has its own brand “Kefufuâ€. It currently has four production bases in Ningbo, Chengdu, Beilun and Tianjin, with a production area of ​​190,000 square meters. With a number of Beigao and Halma complete production lines, we have extensive experience in the production of cabinet doors and furniture doors. Through the cooperation with Kelufu, the company will give full play to the guiding role of the wooden door as the front-end traffic entrance of the home decoration, and cooperate with the existing wardrobe, the whole house customization, and the future cabinet business.
◆ Composite growth rate of 36% in the next three years, maintaining “Buy†rating:
We expect the EPS of the company to be 1.09, 1.52 and 2.00 yuan in 2017~19 respectively. The current stock price is 29, 21 and 16 times respectively. Considering the overall prosperity of the industry, the company is expected to enter a new stage after the successful completion. The development phase 2017 is the year of expansion of the company. The channel and capacity are highly flexible and maintain a “buy†rating.
â—† Risk warning: real estate sales decline risk, orders are not as expected.
Tianwo Technology 002564, diagnostic stock : the performance of the interim report is in line with expectations, the leading performance of the engineering general contract is expected to take off
Research institution: Northeast Securities 000686, diagnostic stock
Report summary:
Event: The company released the interim report yesterday. In the first half of 2017, the company achieved revenue of 6.978 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1166%. The net profit of returning home was 90.59 million yuan, an increase of 480.68% over the same period of last year. The net profit of the returning mother in the second quarter was 58.28 million. Yuan, the net profit for January-September is expected to be 2-250 million yuan, a loss of 55.8 million yuan in the same period last year.
The general contract of the project was strong in the first half of the year. China Mobile Power Driven the growth of performance: During the reporting period, Zhongji Power achieved operating income of RMB 57.8,13.51 million, an increase of 153.92% over the same period of the previous year; net profit of RMB 24,728,200, an increase of 54.97 over the same period of the previous year. %. Zhongji Power is the leader of the engineering general contractor, and the synergy effect with the company's original business has gradually emerged. In the first half of the year, the performance in the new energy field represented by photovoltaics was strong. The annual commitment profit was 380 million yuan, and 65% was completed in the first half of the year. It is expected to exceed the promised profit. At the same time, Zhongji Power actively seeks new development opportunities for the construction of transmission and distribution network, new technologies for solar thermal power generation, and the overseas market of the Belt and Road. In the field of power transmission and distribution, the company invested 73 million yuan in electricity and holds a 51% stake in Guangxi Nengmei, helping the company expand the transmission and distribution market in Southwest China.
At present, orders exceed 18.3 billion, and large orders provide guarantees for future performance: as of June 30, there are still 18.3 billion yuan in hand orders, including 16.1 billion yuan for Zhongji Power and 1.9 billion yuan for pressure vessels. Offshore, military, and new materials. 3.2 billion yuan. During the reporting period, the company obtained a number of large orders, including the EPC general contracting project for the new construction project of 12×135MW self-supplied power plant of Jiangsu Delong Nickel Indonesia Phase II Project. Large orders will guarantee future performance.
Asset integration will be further promoted, and resource utilization efficiency is expected to further improve: After a series of integration, the company has formed four business segments of clean energy, high-end equipment, new materials and offshore military industry. During the reporting period, asset integration continued to advance. The company disposed of Shanghai Xinmeiyuan, a loss-making asset, to ease the burden on listed companies. At the same time, the equipment sector business was integrated into Zhanghua Machine to realize group management and plate management, which will further enhance the company's resource utilization. effectiveness.
Investment suggestions and ratings: The company's net profit for 2017-2019 is estimated to be 400 million yuan, 550 million yuan and 660 million yuan, EPS is 0.54 yuan, 0.75 yuan, 0.9 yuan, and the price-earnings ratio is: 17 times, 12 times, 10 times. . Give a "Buy" rating.
Risk Warning: New orders are less than expected, and accounts receivable are less than expected.
Hangxiao Steel Structure 600477, Diagnostic Unit : Xiong'an Catalyst has the strongest appeal, and technical signing is more than expected
Research institute: Guotai Junan 601211, diagnostic unit
Report reading:
The new business model is accelerating. The number/amount of orders signed in 2017 has increased by 108%/124%, and the performance is expected to exceed expectations. The superimposed Xiong'an theme has the strongest appeal, and the assembled buildings are the most suitable. The target price is raised to 18.06 yuan. .
Investment points:
Maintain overweight. Considering that the company's signings exceeded expectations, the company's 2017/18 EPS is forecasted to 0.57/0.75 yuan (formerly 0.48/0.63 yuan), with a growth rate of 74%/31%. Considering the resurgence of Xiong'an theme, the most suitable assembly, the target price is raised. To 18.06 yuan (36% space), corresponding to 32 times PE in 2017, increase holdings.
Xiong'an theme has the strongest appeal, and Hebei's assembly style is triumphant. 1) Xiong'an Construction Investment Group plays a leading role in construction investment and H2 triple catalytic overweight (Urban Design Plan/Hebei Assembly Building Expo/Xiong'an Plan); 2) Hebei Accelerated Propulsion Assembly: 1 Hebei Assembly Type 13 It is planned to increase the proportion of prefabricated buildings by more than 20% in 2020 (more than 10% of steel structure), 30% or more in 2025 (Zhangjiakou mentions 5 years and 30%). 2 Hebei Housing and Construction Hall approved Hebei Hangxiao as Hebei's assembly-type construction industry base. â‘¢ According to Chinese construction 601668, Institute expert consultation shares, male security will take 80-90% fabricated.
The marginal competitive advantage is enhanced. 1) The company is the first listed company in the industry, the first batch of designated steel construction enterprises in China, and the key high-tech enterprises in the Torch Program. The development scale ranks first in the same industry; 2) It has the highest and most complete qualification in the steel structure industry: steel structure professional contractor壹Grade A, special engineering design grade A qualification; 3) market value of 18.2 billion / ROE23% in the same industry, PE only 23 times (industry average 37 times).
Sign the order and speed up. 1) Year-to-date 25 singles 895 million yuan, the number/amount of signed orders increased by 108%/124%, accounting for 86%/91% of the whole year of 2016; 2) Up to now, 64 singles exceeded 2.2 billion yuan in 22 provinces and cities, 2014- 16 years 1/9/29 single, the signing continues to speed up, we estimate that the future ceiling over 700 orders do not need to worry; 3) technology licensing fee is the main source of company performance, steel price increase has little effect; 4) cost advantage / policy Support / technological advancement / Xiong'an benchmark / market space (we estimate 1.3 million in the next four years of assembly market space) five major logic-driven assembly inflection points, the company to benefit from the market to seize the market.
Core risks: lower than expected growth in performance, weakened technology leadership.
Huaxia Bank 600015, diagnostic stock : the income of intermediary business is growing rapidly, and the quality of assets needs to be improved.
Research institution: Zhongyuan Securities 601375, diagnostic stock
Event: Hua Xia Bank announced its 2017 interim report on August 11, 2017.
Operating income increased rapidly, but net profit only increased slightly. In the first half of 2017, the operating income was 33.348 billion yuan, up 6.87% year-on-year; operating profit was 13.151 billion yuan, up 0.18% year-on-year; net profit was 9.836 billion yuan, up 0.1% year-on-year. The main reason for the rapid growth in revenue was the increase in the net fee and commission income by 30.23%. The main reason for the unsynchronized increase in net profit was the significant increase in asset impairment losses. The asset impairment loss in the first half of the year was 8.218 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.94%.
The scale of assets grew steadily and the income of intermediary business grew rapidly. The company's total assets were 2.42 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.84% compared with the beginning of the year, of which the total loan amount was 131,000 yuan, an increase of 7.64% compared with the beginning of the year. The main reason for the rapid growth of loan growth was the relatively strong financing demand in the first half of the year. In the first half of the year, the company realized an intermediary business income of 9.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.331 billion yuan. The main reason for the rapid growth of intermediary business income is that the business of asset management, bank cards and financial markets has maintained good development.
Asset quality pressures still exist, and net interest margin is expected to stabilize. At the end of June 2017, the ratio of non-performing loan ratio, interest-based loan ratio and overdue loans were 1.76%, 4.44% and 4.82%, respectively, which were 0.01, 0.24 and 0.1 percentage points higher than the end of 2016. From the perspective of the industry, non-performing loans are mainly concentrated in the wholesale and retail, manufacturing and mining industries. From a regional perspective, non-performing loans are concentrated in South China and Central China, North China and Northeast China. The leading indicators such as the proportion of concern loans and the proportion of overdue loans have increased significantly, and there is still considerable pressure on asset quality in the future. The net interest margin for the first half of the year was 2.10%, which was 0.32 percentage points lower than that at the end of last year. It is expected that the net interest margin in the second half of the year will stabilize with the decline of the impact of the “reform of the camp†and the implementation of a prudent monetary policy.
For the first time, the “overweight†rating was given. The BVPS for 17-19 years is expected to be 13.01, 14.30 and 15.65 yuan, calculated according to the closing price of 9.35, corresponding to PB of 0.72, 0.65 and 0.60 times respectively. The current valuation is lower than the overall valuation of the industry, and the first coverage is given an “overweight†rating.
Risk warning: economic growth is less than expected, systemic risk, financial supervision exceeded expectations.
Jingwang Electronics 603228, diagnostic stock : semi-annual report in line with expectations, the company grows steadily
Research institution: Essence Securities
â– Event: The company released the 2017 semi-annual report. In the first half of the year, it achieved operating income of 1.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.52%; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 316 million yuan, an increase of 29.17%; deduction of shareholders attributable to listed companies The net profit of recurring profit and loss was 317 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.37%. The performance growth was in line with expectations.
■Improve lean production management, high yields bring high gross profit margin and stable profitability: The company continues to focus on the printed circuit board industry, mainly engaged in the research and development, production and sales of printed circuit boards. The main product categories include multi-layer rigidity. Circuit boards, flexible circuit boards, and metal-based circuit boards. The company carried out lean production and cost control in depth, and continuously improved the overall yield of PCB products to ensure the steady improvement of the company's operating efficiency. In the first half of 2017, the company's gross profit margin and net profit margin remained at 32.04% and 16.03%, respectively, far exceeding the average gross profit margin of 22.34% of A-share similar companies and the average net profit margin of 7.61%. The high yield is also an effective guarantee for the company's product quality. The company insists on quality first, and has won the titles of “excellent supplier†and “best supplier†issued by customers such as Hella, HONEYWELL, IMI, and Gionee, and has an excellent reputation in the industry.
â– Benefiting from the global market shift of PCB, the leading effect of the industry will continue to emerge: While China has become a major electronics manufacturing country, global PCB production capacity is also shifting to China. According to Prismark data, the global PCB production value in 2016 was 54.207 billion US dollars, down about 2% year-on-year. The Chinese PCB industry is the only one with a growth rate of 1.3%, and the output value accounted for 50% of the global ratio for the first time. According to the data of China Electronic Circuit Industry Association, the company's revenue in 2016 ranked 10th in China's PCB industry and 2nd among domestic enterprises. The company ranks second among domestic-funded enterprises to fully demonstrate its competitiveness, and the company also has the growth space to pursue higher-ranking foreign capital and joint ventures. We believe that under the general trend of global PCB capacity transfer to China, domestic substitution will become a certain development direction, and the growth of China's PCB companies will be better overall. At the same time, the market will pay more attention to the key technologies, efficiency, quality, cost and environmental protection. Factors, optimistic about the company's long-term development.
â– Investment suggestion: Buy-A investment rating, 6-month target price of 54.25 yuan. We expect the company's net profit attributable to the company in 2017-2019 to be 690 million, 886 million, and 1.11 billion, respectively, corresponding to EPS of 1.69 yuan, 2.17 yuan, 2.72 yuan, respectively, the year-on-year growth rate of 28.3%, 28.5%, 25.1%, Give Buy-A an investment rating with a 6-month target price of $54.25, which is equivalent to a dynamic P/E ratio of 25x in 2018.
â– Risk warning: The macroeconomic downturn; industry concentration has not improved as expected.
New classic 603096, diagnostic stock : overweight content creative industry, first-half growth rate exceeded expectations
Research institution: Minsheng Securities
I. Overview of the event
The company expects that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will increase by 50% to 65% in the first half of 2017 compared with the same period of the previous year. From January to June 2016, the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was RMB 67 million. It is estimated that the net profit for the first half of 2017 will be RMB 1.01-111 billion.
Second, analysis and judgment
Overweight content creative industry, first-half growth rate exceeded expectations
According to the company's announcement, the main reason for the sharp increase in the first half of 2017 was the further integration of high-quality resources into the content creative business, which led to an increase in the scale of self-owned copyright book planning and distribution business with higher gross profit margin.
The company's 2014-2016 business revenue compound growth rate was 5.39%, operating profit compound growth rate was 27.63%, total profit compound growth rate was 29.07%, and net profit compound growth rate was 26.82%. The net profit of returning to home in 2014-2016 is 0.98 billion yuan, 130 million yuan, and 152 million yuan respectively. If the net profit of the company in the first half of 2017 exceeds 100 million yuan, the annual business is expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate.
Self-owned copyright book projects are abundant, and digital book business has growth potential
At present, the company's main business focuses on book planning and distribution, book distribution, film and television drama planning. As of the end of 2016, the company's own copyright book planning and distribution business revenue accounted for 56%, book distribution business accounted for 33%, non-self-owned book distribution business revenue accounted for 10%. According to the data at the end of 2016, the company's first core core business own copyright book planning and distribution business gross margin reached 51%, the second largest business book distribution business gross margin 10%, the third largest business non-self-owned copyright book distribution business The interest rate is 18%. The company continued to increase its investment in the construction and distribution of its own copyrighted books, and its business share is expected to increase further, thereby improving the overall profitability.
According to the 2016 opening data, the number of children's books in the book market segment increased by 28.84% year-on-year, followed by literature books, which increased by 16.10% year-on-year. The company has strong competitive advantages in the field of children's books and literature books:
1. Rich copyright reserves: By the end of 2016, the company had 2,967 book copyrights during the authorization period. It has built many popular Chinese and foreign literature and children's books, and has more than 200 well-known writers (including 7 Nobel Prize winners). The exclusive Chinese simplified copyright of the works, including the heavyweight works of Garcia Luques Marquez, VS Naipaul, Kawabata Yasunari, Alice Lumenro, Haruki Murakami, Higashino Keigo, etc. The copyright of the book includes: "Small Peas by the Window", "White Nights", "One Hundred Years of Solitude", "Love of the Fallen City", "The Story of the Sahara", "Solutions for the Grocery Store" and so on.
2, the products sell well and long-term sales, with a good market reputation: the company's best-selling children's best-selling book "small peas by the window", from 2008 to 2012 for five consecutive years in the open book information annual children's bestseller list champion, cumulative The circulation is more than 9.6 million copies, and the content is selected for the Beijing Normal University edition and the Renjiao version of the primary school language recommended reading bibliography; the literary books "The Story of the Sahara", "How much is the dream in the flowers", "Love in the City", "Little Reunion" The cumulative circulation of books such as "The Rainy Season Is No Longer" has exceeded 1.1 million copies; in 2011, the company introduced the representative of Garcia Luques Marquez "One Hundred Years of Solitude" to China, and the cumulative single circulation has exceeded 5.2 million copies. The company has rich experience in distribution and good market reputation, and the cooperation relationship with the copyright party is stable, and it has long-term advantages in copyright acquisition.
In addition, as for digital books, as of the end of 2016, the company has 248 digital books on the line, and the digital book business accounted for 0.64% of the total revenue. There is still room for improvement. At present, the company has established cooperative relationships with mainstream digital reading platforms such as Amazon Kindle, Dangdang Reading and Palm Reading. With the growing proportion of digital reading industry, the company's digital book business is expected to further develop.
Bestseller IP+ film and television interaction, future development is worth looking forward to
The company's film and television business is in the preparatory stage. In 2014, it established a new classic film industry. In 2016, it established Erma Film Industry. Backed by the advantages of book publishing, it has started a number of film and television drama copyright reserves and script adaptation work; it has assisted in the completion of the road. Beauty, "Young and frivolous", "Robbery", "Happiness is very good?" The promotion and promotion of many films, including the right to participate in film and television dramas including: Lu Yao's "Life" exclusive film adaptation rights; Zhang Ailing's "Red Rose and White Rose" exclusive TV drama adaptation rights; Gao Yang "Ci Xi Quan Chuan" exclusive TV drama adaptation rights Mr. Gu Long's "Happy Hero" exclusive film adaptation rights; dream pillow "Yin Yang Shi" exclusive film, TV drama adaptation rights. In the future, the company is expected to improve the layout of the cultural and creative industry chain. The development of “book + film†business is worth looking forward to.
Equity incentive plan highlights management confidence
The company issued an equity incentive plan in June this year, which has been approved by the shareholders meeting. The incentive plan is to grant 4.64 million rights and interests to 90 directors, senior management, middle management personnel, senior editors and business executives. The performance evaluation index is not less than 30%, 40%, 50% in 2017-2019. . The company's equity incentive performance appraisal indicators highlight management's confidence in future operations.
Third, profit forecast and investment advice
We believe that the scale of the company's own copyright book planning and distribution business is expected to continue to improve, with obvious advantages of leading card position, and the potential of the future industrial chain of cultural creativity such as film and television. The company's 17-19 year EPS is expected to be 1.56, 1.91 and 2.19 yuan. The current PE is 28X, 23X, 20X. It is given a "strongly recommended" rating and can be given 30 to 32 times PE in 2017, corresponding to a reasonable stock price for the next 6 months. 46.8 yuan ~ 50.0 yuan.
Fourth, risk tips
1. Risk of piracy; 2. Risk of selecting topics for book planning; 3. Development of film and television business is not up to expectations; 4. Industry competition is intensifying.
(Securities Times News Center)
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